De National Intelligence Council (NIC) publiceerde deze week haar global trend review waarin voorspeld wordt hoe de wereld er over een 15-tal jaar zal uitzien. Toch enkele verrassende uitspraken:
By 2025, the European Union will be a "hobbled giant" crippled by internal bickering and a eurosceptic citizenry. Eastern European organised crime could dominate one or more member state governments, and the bloc will likely be kowtowing to Moscow after having failed at all attempts to wean itself from Russian energy supplies.
"Europe will remain heavily dependent on Russia for energy in 2025, despite efforts to promote energy efficiency and renewable energy and lower greenhouse gas emissions."
Deze afhankelijkheid "will foster constant attentiveness to Moscow's interests by key countries, including Germany and Italy, who see Russia as a reliable supplier" en zou de unie in gevaar kunnen brengen "if Russian firms are unable to full fill contract commitments because of underinvestment in their natural gas fields or if growing corruption and organised criminal involvement in the Eurasian energy sector spill over to infect Western business interests."
"Crime could be the gravest threat inside Europe as Eurasian transnational organisations - flush from involvement in energy and mineral concerns - become more powerful and broaden their scope."
Een van de lidstaten zou zelfs ingenomen kunnen worden door een van de nieuwe wereldmachten. "One or more governments in eastern or central Europe could fall prey to their domination."
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