Rusland noodzakelijk om Nabucco te laten functioneren?

At last week’s Nabucco summit, the European Union took decisive steps by pledging the firmest possible political support for the project, in order to disperse any doubts that its intention to build a pipeline whose sole purpose is to supply Europe with non-Russian gas is indeed real. This week, the story took an unexpected turn. The Director of the Nabucco project Reinhard Mitschek said that the Nabucco consortium was open to Russia’s participation, and was ready to negotiate.

Russia has been working on its own pipeline dubbed South Stream, which targets Italy and Austria, while Nabucco is supposed to run from Turkey to Austria. The two are perceived as rivals, and the Russian leadership has on more than one occasion voiced concerns over the feasibility and viability of Nabucco, as the consortium comprises only transit countries, and not a single producer. This could be the main reason why Russia came into the picture. The Nabucco pipeline was conceived in 2002 and strongly backed by the United States as a means to free Europe from excessive Russian influence, since Russia has been the source of almost half of the gas the EU consumed.
Central Asian countries have been considered the key producers which could provide the 30 billion cubic meters necessary to fill Nabucco and diversify Europe’s energy supplies. Turkmenistan’s and Kazakhstan’s having participated in last week’s summit was seen as a positive signal that both countries were ready to cooperate. [cfr. EU puts energy hopes into Turkmenistan 'black hole'] The Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev stated that his country is prepared to double gas production in order to participate in Nabucco. At the same time, he pointed out the need for transit contracts with EU countries, as well as funding and a clarification of the EU’s energy policy.
The two other possible alternatives are Iran and the U.S.-backed Iraq. The former would hardly provide Europe with more energy security than Russia does, while the latter is still a very distant possibility.
Gas from Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan is already exported to Europe, but it goes via Russia, which imports it and then resells it to consumers.

In any case, Russia and Iran are going to have leverage in the project, since both are members of the Caspian treaty and their approval would be necessary to lay pipelines across the Caspian Sea.

Turkey would be a key transit country for Nabucco, and this could also be a problem. The country, which is aspiring to EU membership, could be tempted to use the pipeline as a bargaining chip to speed up its integration with the union.

Russia could make significant gains from scrapping South Stream and turning to Nabucco instead. The two pipelines have been seen as rivals, and the Czech Prime Minister Mirek Topolanek called South Stream a “direct threat” to Nabucco. The pipelines are going to have the same capacity, and both are scheduled to begin operating in 2013. However, it has been estimated that South Stream could end up costing twice as much as the $8 billion Nabucco. Acting as a major or even the sole gas producer could also help Russia to retain its influence over Europe, marking for a significant gain on the political side.

Source: Russia Profile

Samenwerking EU, VS en Rusland

The Obama Administration should present a united front with Europe, because division within the West invites Russia to assert itself. It must also find ways to address Russia's perception of the last twenty years as a continual humiliation. Above all, in shaping its policies, it should draw on the lesson of the EU itself: The recipe for this part of Europe in the 21st Century is inclusion. Deze stelling wordt verdedigd door Jim O'Brien - voormalig presidentieel gezant in de Balkan - en Alexandros Yannis - gastdocent aan de Fletcher School en tot voor kort actief in het buitenlands beleid van de EU voor de Balkan en de Kaukasus. Ze stellen in "EU and US should co-operate with Russia" vier facetten van samenwerking voor:

The need to build an inclusive security architecture. Russia is concerned about its southern border and has resorted to 19th Century sphere-of-influence rhetoric and tactics. Such a formulation must be opposed resolutely. [...] The best alternative is to reshape security relations between US, EU and Russia along a political and security architecture which can accommodate the interests of all three actors in the direction of a security community that fully involves Russia as an equal partner and builds enduring trust. [...] Turkey's latest proposal for a Caucasus Stability and Co-operation Platform could be useful as a basis for bringing together the necessary voices in the Caucasus. The success of another local initiative, the Southeast European Co-operation Process, could provide additional inspiration for a stability pact of a wider geographical scope.

Daarnaast pleiten de auteurs voor 'meer Europa' in het oosten door bijvoorbeeld reizen naar Europa te vergemakkelijken, meer vrije handelperspectieven te creeëren en meer politieke en financiële bijstand te bieden.

More Europe in the east should not lead to new divisions. The EU and Russia must conclude soon the new EU-Russia agreement, which will replace the current Partnership and Co-operation Agreement. More Europe in Russia - with greater interaction and joint perspectives - should be actively pursued with Russia too.

Verder moet werk gemaakt worden van alternatieve energieroutes.

Europe's energy dependence on Russia weakens its political latitude. [...] The aggressive geopolitics of some hawks in the Kremlin must be opposed, but their domestic rivals also need to be enticed. [...] It should be possible to develop diverse routes, including routes that avoid Russian territory, but that allow all the players, including Russia, to invest and receive benefits. It may be possible to engage Russian companies in the ownership structure of non-Russian pipeline and transportation infrastructure. With a minority stake, they would have an interest in seeing the routes run efficiently, but not the ability to disrupt operations.

Ten laatste moeten instellingen opgezet worden die die samenwerking stimuleren.

President Sarkozy has proposed a "Joint Economic Community" between the EU and Russia. If the US were to be invited, it could prove the first step towards a genuine strategic partnership between the EU, the US and Russia. The Black Sea region has great potential for a politics of inclusion as well. This includes EU and NATO members, Russia, Ukraine and the Caucasus. The EU's Black Sea Synergy is a good but hesitant start. It must become more political and build common institutions.

EU observer

Litouwen bemoeilijkt de gesprekken tussen Rusland en de EU. Een Litouwse ambtenaar liet zich deze week het volgende ontgaan:

"France and Germany are still dreaming of the Russia of the 1990s. Meanwhile, Russian tanks are parked in an EU neighbourhood country,". "Something very serious is happening in the east. The Caucasus is becoming like the Balkans, where the EU did not wake up until it was too late."

Maandag wordt een voorstel ingediend om de controle over Bosnië over te dragen aan de EU.

The current "status quo is not viable and likely to remain so until and unless the international community is prepared to change the parameters of its presence and approach".