Crimea has
been a part of Russia for over two centuries and to many Russians it is a
strange switch in the Soviet history that Crimea is not part of Russia
today. It was a present of Nikita Chrushev to celebrate the 300th anniversary
of Ukraine’s merger with tsarist Russia. In recent decades it has been a source of
tension between Ukraine and Russia.
One of the
most recent disputes has been in May 1992, shortly after the collapse of the
Soviet Union, when the Crimean Parliament declared independence from Ukraine. The
dispute was resolved with an agreement known as the Act on Division of Power
Between Authorities of Ukraine and Republic of Crimea, which granted Crimea
autonomous status within Ukraine.
The Crimea
is the only region in Ukraine where Russians are in the majority, constituting
about 60 percent of Crimea’s population. Apart from the Russians and Ukrainians, there
live 12 percent Crimean Tatar (a Muslim population which has been deported en
masse in 1942 by Stalin to Central Asia and have since returned to their
homeland), who have little affection for Russia. There is also an important naval
base at Sevastopol that the Russians lease from Ukraine (until
1942 in exchange for discounts on Russian gas). Sevastopol is the home
of Russia's Black Sea Fleet, and it gives the Russian Navy
direct access to the Mediterranean Sea.
Last
November started unrest in Kiev when President Yanukovich backed away from
political and free trade agreements with the European Union. On 22 February he
was impeached by the Ukrainian parliament and temporally – until the elections of
May 2014 – replaced by Oleksandr Turchynov, an ally of Tymoshenko. This caused
tensions between supporters of the new Kiev administration with pro-Russian
protesters at the Crimean area. On 1 March the Russian parliament approved to
send troops to Crimea in order to protect their military bases.
A full
invasion of Ukraine could risk interrupting deliveries of Russian gas to
European countries and further destabilizing a country that’s already on the
brink of default. Opinion makers think that Putin’s goal rather may be to
ensure Russia’s military dominance of the region survives through its hold on
the Black Sea port Sevastopol. The
threat of military force may set the stage for a referendum scheduled for 30
March in Crimea over whether the region should have more independence from Kiev
(and become de facto Russia’s unofficial protectorate).
Reporters
of the Bloombergs Bussiness Week ask themselves why Ukraine matters to so many
nations. “Ukraine doesn’t seem like the
kind of place that world powers would want to tussle over. It’s as poor as
Paraguay and as corrupt as Iran. During the 20th century it was home to a
deadly famine under Stalin (the Holomodor, 1933), a historic massacre of Jews
(Babi Yar, 1941), and one of the world’s worst nuclear disasters (Chernobyl,
1986).”
According
to them China looks to Ukraine as a secure source to supply food and energy.
It’s lending the country billions of dollars to upgrade farm irrigation and
develop coal gasification; and Russian President Vladimir Putin wants Ukraine
to join his Eurasian Union trade bloc, not the European Union. Half of the gas
sold by Russian state controlled Gazprom to Europe, traveled through a maze of
Ukrainian pipelines. [Read more at: The New Great Game: Why Ukraine Matters to So Many Other Nations.]
Peter Coy
sums up the seven main reasons why Putin won’t give up Ukraine:
Pride: Putin said in 2005 that the fall of
the Soviet Union was “the greatest geopolitical catastrophe” of the 20th
century. From that perspective, to allow Ukraine to slip out of Russia’s orbit
would make Putin no better than Mikhail Gorbachev, who presided over the Soviet
empire’s dissolution in 1991.
Trade: Putin wants Ukraine to join
Russia’s fledgling customs union with Belarus, Kazakhstan, and soon, Armenia.
The customs union is his answer to the European Union’s much larger trading
bloc. Indeed, the current protests broke out after Ukrainian President Viktor
Yanukovych, a Putin ally, pivoted away from a European Union integration accord
last November and chose Russia instead.
History: Russia and Ukraine have deep
historical links dating back to the Kievan Rus, whose glory days were the 11th
and 12th centuries. Kievan Rus “is traditionally seen as the
beginning of Russia and the ancestor of Belarus and Ukraine.”
Statehood: In 2008, the Russian business daily
Kommersant cited a source in a NATO country’s delegation who quoted Putin
as telling President George W. Bush: “You understand, George, that Ukraine
isn’t even a state.” For most of the 900 years preceding independence in 1991,
it wasn’t. Parts of what’s now Ukraine were controlled by Poland, Lithuania,
the Khanate of Crimea, Austria Hungary, Germany, and of course Russia. In 2009
Putin approvingly quoted a description of Ukraine as “little Russia.” If Putin
doesn’t perceive Ukraine as a real state, he’s less likely to respect its
independence.
Crimea: Crimea, the southern part of
Ukraine on the Black Sea, was part of Russia until 1954, when it was given to
the Ukrainian Soviet Socialist Republic by the Presidium of the Supreme Soviet,
supposedly to strengthen brotherly ties, even though it had a majority-Russian
population. Historians still aren’t sure why Russia gave away Crimea, but Putin
isn’t likely to let that gift get too far away.
The
Navy: Russia’s
Black Sea Fleet is headquartered in the Crimean city of Sevastopol (which is
less than 200 miles northwest of Sochi). If an unfriendly Ukrainian government
ended the lease, Russia would be forced to move its headquarters east to
Novorossiysk. In December, Russia dangled an offer of cheaper natural gas to
Ukraine in exchange for better terms on its lease in Sevastopol.
Energy: Natural gas sales to Europe are a
key source of foreign exchange for Russia, and a big share of that gas passes
through Ukraine. It wants to keep those pipelines in friendly hands. But
Russia’s Gazprom is also hedging its bets by building a new South Stream
pipeline that crosses the Black Sea on the seabed from Russia to Bulgaria,
bypassing Ukraine.
Source: New York Times, Bloomberg Businessweek
