Vrije val roebel zet door

De waarde van de roebel ging vandaag opnieuw in een duizelingwekkende vaart omlaag. De drastische renteverhoging die de Russische centrale bank afgelopen nacht doorvoerde, heeft voorlopig geen einde gemaakt aan de vrije val van de munt en de daarmee samenhangende vlucht van kapitaal uit Rusland.

De waarde van de roebel kelderde aan het begin van de middag zo'n 15 procent ten opzichte van het slot op maandag, tot een nieuw dieptepunt van ruim 75 roebel per dollar. Gisteren werd met een daling van 10 procent, tot 64 roebel per dollar, al de sterkste achteruitgang sinds de roebelcrisis van 1998 genoteerd.

De roebel is dit jaar ruimschoots in waarde gehalveerd en is daarmee de grootste verliezer van alle toonaangevende valuta in de wereld. De Russische munt staat zwaar onder druk door de grote onzekerheid over de Russische economie, die wordt geremd door de westerse sancties tegen het land en de sterke daling van de olieprijs. De afgelopen dagen gaat de achteruitgang van de munt steeds sneller. De daling van 40 roebel per dollar naar 55 nam tussen begin oktober en begin december nog bijna twee maanden in beslag. De stap naar meer dan 75 roebel per dollar werd vervolgens binnen een week genomen.

Staatsleningen

Door alle onrust loopt ook de rente op Russische staatsleningen hard op. Vandaag steeg het rendement op tienjaarsleningen in roebels naar ruim 15 procent, waarmee het hoogste peil in jaren werd bereikt. Het rendement op vergelijkbare leningen in dollars steeg naar 7,6 procent.

Bron: De Morgen

Eastern Promises. Portrait of Eastern Europe in 50 films

Eastern Promises. Portrait of Eastern Europe in 50 films is the title of one of the retrospectives at this year’s 62nd San Sebastian Festival. A look at movies produced since 2000 in the countries that lived under Soviet influence post-World War II. A cycle to discover the creative wealth of these film industries and the new talents that have emerged in the last decade, putting an end to all kinds of prejudices and stereotyped images and bringing us closer to the reality of these countries as they themselves portray it.

This year will see the 25th anniversary of the fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989. An occurrence which brought an end to the division of Europe that had marked the Cold War and to Soviet domination in these countries, totally separated ideologically and culturally from the rest of Europe. From then on, a series of momentous historical events completely changed the political geography of the countries forming that bloc traditionally known as "Eastern Europe": the Balkan War and the tragic division of the former Yugoslavia, the Romanian revolution, the disappearance of the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics following the independence of some of its member states, the dissolution of Czechoslovakia, etc. The shift from the former communist regimes to market economies and the opening up to cultural products that had been repressed was also decisive in provoking important social changes in these countries, both in the generations that had lived under communism and in other new ones that emerged after the fall of the Wall.

As was to be expected, these changes, which radically transformed the former communist societies in barely 25 years, are reflected in the cinema produced in these countries, a cinema that now brings us a record and testimony of that social and political process. The new generations of filmmakers from countries such as Romania, Hungary, Poland or Czech Republic currently attract the attention of critics and audiences worldwide, along with the proposals from countries experiencing new stimulus in their film production: Bulgaria, the Baltic Republics, Ukraine, Slovakia, Slovenia, Moldavia and Macedonia. All propose new mind-sets for today’s audiences: films on social issues portraying contemporary human landscapes, historical recreations of events in recent decades only now coming to light, models of genre movies focussed on a new kind of audience, young upcoming filmmakers who turn their particular points of view on the world inherited from their elders... Liberalisation, critique, historical reflection and uncertainty as regards the future of these societies come together in this extremely wealthy cinematic fresco helping us to better understand that Europe hidden from our eyes for decades and to discover how it deals with that new reality today.

The retrospective will bring together a total of 50 titles from Albania, Bosnia, Bulgaria, Croatia, Czech Republic, Estonia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Macedonia, Moldavia, Poland, Romania, Slovakia, Slovenia and Serbia, many of which have never been seen in our country. The cycle will include, among others, titles such as No Man's Land(2001) by Danis Tanovic, The Blacks (2009) by Goran Dević & Zvonimir Jurić, Children of Sarajevo (2012) by Aida Begic, The Parade (2011) by Srđan Dragojević, How I Killed a Saint (2004) by Teona Strugar Mitevska, The Temptation of St. Tony (2009) by Veiko Õunpuu, Cooking History (2009) by Peter Kerekes, The Wild Bees (2001) by Bohdan Sláma, Hukkle (2002) by György Pálfi, The Death of Mr. Lazarescu (2005) by Cristi Puiu, 12:08 East of Bucharest (2006) by Corneliu Porumboiu and Panihida (2012)by Ana-Felicia Scutelnicu & Tito Molina (provisional titles selection). A publication coordinated by Mathieu Darras will accompany the cycle.

The retrospective is jointly organised with San Telmo Museum, San Sebastian European Capital of Culture 2016, Euskadiko Filmategia/Filmoteca Vasca and CulturArts IVAC.

Website San Sebastian Film Festival

Political crisis in Ukraine

Crimea has been a part of Russia for over two centuries and to many Russians it is a strange switch in the Soviet history that Crimea is not part of Russia today. It was a present of Nikita Chrushev to celebrate the 300^th anniversary of Ukraine’s merger with tsarist Russia.  In recent decades it has been a source of tension between Ukraine and Russia. 

One of the most recent disputes has been in May 1992, shortly after the collapse of the Soviet Union, when the Crimean Parliament declared independence from Ukraine. The dispute was resolved with an agreement known as the Act on Division of Power Between Authorities of Ukraine and Republic of Crimea, which granted Crimea autonomous status within Ukraine.

The Crimea is the only region in Ukraine where Russians are in the majority, constituting about 60 percent of Crimea’s population.  Apart from the Russians and Ukrainians, there live 12 percent Crimean Tatar (a Muslim population which has been deported en masse in 1942 by Stalin to Central Asia and have since returned to their homeland), who have little affection for Russia. There is also an important naval base at Sevastopol that the Russians lease from Ukraine (until 1942 in exchange for discounts on Russian gas). Sevastopol is the home of Russia's Black Sea Fleet, and it gives the Russian Navy direct access to the Mediterranean Sea.

Last November started unrest in Kiev when President Yanukovich backed away from political and free trade agreements with the European Union. On 22 February he was impeached by the Ukrainian parliament and temporally – until the elections of May 2014 – replaced by Oleksandr Turchynov, an ally of Tymoshenko. This caused tensions between supporters of the new Kiev administration with pro-Russian protesters at the Crimean area. On 1 March the Russian parliament approved to send troops to Crimea in order to protect their military bases.

A full invasion of Ukraine could risk interrupting deliveries of Russian gas to European countries and further destabilizing a country that’s already on the brink of default. Opinion makers think that Putin’s goal rather may be to ensure Russia’s military dominance of the region survives through its hold on the Black Sea port Sevastopol.  The threat of military force may set the stage for a referendum scheduled for 30 March in Crimea over whether the region should have more independence from Kiev (and become de facto Russia’s unofficial protectorate).

Reporters of the Bloombergs Bussiness Week ask themselves why Ukraine matters to so many nations. “Ukraine doesn’t seem like the kind of place that world powers would want to tussle over. It’s as poor as Paraguay and as corrupt as Iran. During the 20th century it was home to a deadly famine under Stalin (the Holomodor, 1933), a historic massacre of Jews (Babi Yar, 1941), and one of the world’s worst nuclear disasters (Chernobyl, 1986).”

According to them China looks to Ukraine as a secure source to supply food and energy. It’s lending the country billions of dollars to upgrade farm irrigation and develop coal gasification; and Russian President Vladimir Putin wants Ukraine to join his Eurasian Union trade bloc, not the European Union. Half of the gas sold by Russian state controlled Gazprom to Europe, traveled through a maze of Ukrainian pipelines.  [Read more at: The New Great Game: Why Ukraine Matters to So Many Other Nations.]

Peter Coy sums up the seven main reasons why Putin won’t give up Ukraine:

Pride: Putin said in 2005 that the fall of the Soviet Union was “the greatest geopolitical catastrophe” of the 20th century. From that perspective, to allow Ukraine to slip out of Russia’s orbit would make Putin no better than Mikhail Gorbachev, who presided over the Soviet empire’s dissolution in 1991.

Trade: Putin wants Ukraine to join Russia’s fledgling customs union with Belarus, Kazakhstan, and soon, Armenia. The customs union is his answer to the European Union’s much larger trading bloc. Indeed, the current protests broke out after Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych, a Putin ally, pivoted away from a European Union integration accord last November and chose Russia instead.

History: Russia and Ukraine have deep historical links dating back to the Kievan Rus, whose glory days were the 11th and 12th centuries. Kievan Rus “is traditionally seen as the beginning of Russia and the ancestor of Belarus and Ukraine.”

Statehood: In 2008, the Russian business daily Kommersant cited a source in a NATO country’s delegation who quoted Putin as telling President George W. Bush: “You understand, George, that Ukraine isn’t even a state.” For most of the 900 years preceding independence in 1991, it wasn’t. Parts of what’s now Ukraine were controlled by Poland, Lithuania, the Khanate of Crimea, Austria Hungary, Germany, and of course Russia. In 2009 Putin approvingly quoted a description of Ukraine as “little Russia.” If Putin doesn’t perceive Ukraine as a real state, he’s less likely to respect its independence.

Crimea: Crimea, the southern part of Ukraine on the Black Sea, was part of Russia until 1954, when it was given to the Ukrainian Soviet Socialist Republic by the Presidium of the Supreme Soviet, supposedly to strengthen brotherly ties, even though it had a majority-Russian population. Historians still aren’t sure why Russia gave away Crimea, but Putin isn’t likely to let that gift get too far away.

The Navy: Russia’s Black Sea Fleet is headquartered in the Crimean city of Sevastopol (which is less than 200 miles northwest of Sochi). If an unfriendly Ukrainian government ended the lease, Russia would be forced to move its headquarters east to Novorossiysk. In December, Russia dangled an offer of cheaper natural gas to Ukraine in exchange for better terms on its lease in Sevastopol.

Energy: Natural gas sales to Europe are a key source of foreign exchange for Russia, and a big share of that gas passes through Ukraine. It wants to keep those pipelines in friendly hands. But Russia’s Gazprom is also hedging its bets by building a new South Stream pipeline that crosses the Black Sea on the seabed from Russia to Bulgaria, bypassing Ukraine.

Source: New York Times, Bloomberg Businessweek

De crisis in Oekraïne: een kijk op de zaak door Idesbald Goddeeris

'Wat Verhofstadt in Oekraïne doet is ofwel dom ofwel pervers'

Slavist en historicus Idesbald Goddeeris (KULeuven) heeft bedenkingen bij de politiek van de Europese Unie in Oekraïne. Bovendien zijn er ultra-fascisten onder de demonstranten. Een gesprek over olie op het vuur in een complex conflict.

Beluister het gesprek op radio 1

Ukraine - between Europe and Russia

While in most of Europe the Euro-scepticism is increasing, Ukrainian people are getting on the street with European flags in their hands. Coming nine years after the Orange revolution, which failed to realise its promises, these protests are done by a younger generation and aimed at the resignation of the President,  Mr Yanukovych – who rejected the new Association Agreement with the European Union. For them the choice between the Soviet past and a European future is not negotiable.

Ukraine is a priority partner country within the European Neighbourhood Policy (ENP) and the Eastern Partnership (EaP). The Partnership and Cooperation Agreement (PCA) which entered into force in 1998 provides a comprehensive framework for cooperation between the EU and Ukraine in all key areas of reform.

Source: The Economist

A new Association Agreement, including a Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Area (DCFTA), was negotiated in 2007-2011 and initialled in 2012. On 10 December 2012, the EU Foreign Affairs Council adopted the Council Conclusions on Ukraine. These affirmed the EU’s commitment to signing the Agreement (including the DCFTA) as soon as Ukraine takes determined action and makes tangible progress towards achieving the benchmarks set out in the Conclusions.

On 21 November 2013, the Cabinet of Ministers of Ukraine took a decision to suspend preparations to sign the Association Agreement. Since then, Ukraine is again divided into two: the West and Centre of Ukraine who are mainly pro-Europe; and the more industrialised East (where a Russian minority lives) which is more inclined to Russia.

This division is nothing new. The western part of Ukraine formed during the Middle ages part of Poland-Lithuania – back then, one of the biggest states in Europe – and afterwards of the Austro‑Hungarian empire. The eastern part of Ukraine revolted in 1648 and was eventually absorbed by Russia. After World War II both parts were united again into the Ukrainian Soviet Socialist Republic and became independent again when the Soviet Union dissolved in 1991.

Ukraine has to choose between East or West. As a journalist of the VRT, Jos de Greef, says: “The iron curtain hasn’t disappeared; it has rather shoved away to the East. Georgia and Ukraine have to decide on which side they want to be.”

Source: VRT; EEAS Europa; The Economist

Uzbekistan: Tashkent - Amir Temur

The first days I spent in Tashkent. The city is more than 2000 years old and has changed its name many times during the history: Chach, Shash, Binkent. All of these names can be linked to the Turkish word ¨Tash¨ (stone).

Memorial stone earthquake 1966

Memorial earthquake "Courage"

Unfortunately many of the historical monuments have been destroyed after the revolution of 1917. Only Kukeldash and Barak-Khana Madrassahs (16th century) have been preserved until today. In 1966, a destructive earthquake shook Tashkent and raised half of the city into ruins. 

When I walk on the street with my Russian friends who lived during their youth in Tashkent they tell me a lot has changed and many buildings and zones are completely new; logos, street names and advertisements are again written in Russian, etc. Yet, when I speak with Russians who have stayed after the independence they tell me all good doctors and teachers have left and they themselves are about to leave the country as well in order to offer a better education to their children.

Amir Temur 

All places I visit in Uzbekistan are either connected to the president, either to Amir Temur. Time to tell something more about the Great Amir Temur (Emir Timur).

Amir Temur Square, Tashkent

Amir Temur, also called Tamerlane (or Lame Temur) for his lame right leg, was born in 1336 in Shakhrisabz, a town near to Samarkand. He was the grandfather of Ulugh Beg, who ruled Central Asia from 1411 to 1449, and the great-great-great-grandfather of Babur, founder of the Mughal Empire, which ruled South Asia for centuries.

From his youth he appeared on the political scene as an active politician and military figure. Having become the ruler of Samarkand he built a great army and carried on many annexationist campaigns. Thus he expanded his empire that stretched from the Volga River and the Caucasian ridges in the west to India in the Southwest. But the center of the empire was in Central Asia.

Tamerlane made an outstanding contribution to the national state system, education and culture, and general development of his state. He promoted the construction of monumental historic buildings, especially in Samarkand. Some of them can be seen today. The inscription on the portal of Tamerlane's Palace Ak-Sarai in Shakhrisabz, reads "If you doubt our might, look at our buildings". The impressiveness of the architecture was aimed at the demonstration of the greatness of the empire. All possible means and every effort were exerted to construct these magnificent buildings. A vast range of building materials from neighboring regions, famous architects, suppliers, and a great number of workers were brought to work. Different specialists were taken from occupied lands.

He ruled over an empire that, in modern times, extends from southeastern Turkey, Syria, Iraq, and Iran, through Central Asia encompassing part of Kazakhstan, Afghanistan, Armenia, Azerbaijan,Georgia, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, Pakistan, and even approaches Kashgar in China. (a full description of his conquests can be found here).

Temur planned to conquer China and to this end, Temur made an alliance with the Mongols of the Northern Yuan Dynasty and prepared all the way to Bukhara. In December 1404, Temur started military campaigns against the Ming Dynasty and detained a Ming envoy, but he was attacked by fever and plague when encamped on the farther side of the Sihon (Syr-Daria) and died at Atrar (Otrar) on 17 February 1405, without ever reaching the Chinese border. Although he preferred to fight his battles in the spring, Temur died during an uncharacteristic winter campaign against the ruling Chinese Ming Dynasty. It was one of the bitterest winters on record.

Temur's legacy is a mixed one. While Central Asia blossomed under his reign, other places such as Baghdad, Damascus, Delhi and other Arab, Georgian, Persian and Indian cities were sacked and destroyed and their populations massacred. He was responsible for the effective destruction of the Christian Church in much of Asia. Thus, while Temur still retains a positive image in Muslim Central Asia and Persia, he is vilified by many in Arabia and India, where some of his greatest atrocities were carried out.

Amir Temur Hiyoboni  

Amir Temur Square, Tashkent

In Tashkent the central square is called after Amir Temur. It was firstly designed in 1870 by Imperial Russian architects as a central park of the new Tashkent and called Constantine Square. Since then the main monument in the center of the square was changed several times. The first was one to General Kaufmann later replaced by monument to Free Workers (1917), monument to 10th anniversary to October revolution (1927), monument to Stalin (1947) and later a monument to Karl Marx (1968). Since 1993, the monument to Amir Temur stands in the center of the square and has Amir's name.

Source: Visit Uzbekistan, Hamro Honim

Uzbekistan: Getting there

From Europe there are flights to Uzbekistan offered by Uzbekian Airways, Turkish Airlines, Czech Airlines and Aeroflot. As the flight schedule of Aeroflot suits my program the best and offers the best price, I decide to fly with Aeroflot. I flew before with Aeroflot and I have always been very pleased with the service they offer. Also this time the service was excellent. I made a stopover in Moscow (even left the airport building) and my luggage was delivered without any problems at the airport of Tashkent.

In order to leave the airport in Moscow one has to fill in a Immigration Card which these days is filled in automatically at the passport control (so not anymore at the plane) and if not more than 10000 Euro is imported, the Customs declaration doesn't has to be filled in.

In Tashkent however, the Customs Declaration still has to be filled in. I only found the Customs Declaration in Russian (though I suppose it also exists in English and/or Uzbek) but don't count on English speaking staff. 

Once passed the passport control, local people start offering their services to bring you to town by car. A ride to the town centre shouldn't cost more than 5000 SUM. It’s a good moment to start learning how to haggle and get a reasonable (tourist) price.