Oekraïne riskeert faillissement

Bank analysts predict that Ukraine is heading for a historic default on its national debt, in a scenario that could complicate EU-Ukraine relations and have an impact on the recent Russia-Ukraine gas transit deal.

Ukrainian industrial production has plunged 26 percent compared to last year. The hryvna has lost over a third of its value against the US dollar and the International Monetary Fund is hesitating on payments of a rescue loan as Kiev declines to keep down public spending.
The political battle between President Viktor Yushchenko and Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko ahead of upcoming presidential elections is making matters worse.
Some experts even fear that Mr Yushchenko will use his influence over the central bank to prevent it from bailing out the Tymoshenko government on debt repayments. "One party could provoke this kind of sovereign default to reap a political benefit," HSBC bank expert Alexander Morozov said. "In that case, Tymoshenko could not fulfill promises to her electorate in terms of paying wages and pensions and so on."

If Ukraine defaults, Austrian, French, Swedish, Italian and German banks stand to be the worst losers, with collective exposure of around €30 billion ($40bn) in the country, according to the Bank of International Settlements.

The European Commission is monitoring the situation with "concern." But for the time being, there is no talk in the EU of crafting a rescue package from institutions such as the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, as EU states concentrate on the economic fall-out at home.

Source: Europa-nu, EUObserver